Impact of Tariff Policy on GDP

United Asset Strategies |
Categories
Market & Economic Commentary
  1. Tariff-Driven Volatility in Economic Data: Business pulled forward imports to build up inventories ahead of tariffs, causing a decline in GDP in the 1st quarter, followed by a ~3% rebound in the 2nd quarter.
     
  2. Core GDP Growth Positive but Moderating: Normalizing for the effect of tariffs, GDP growth moderated to the mid-1% range through the first half of the year (vs. a ~4% average over the prior two years). 
     
  3. Consumer and Business Spending: The trajectory of GDP growth will largely depend on consumer and business spending, which has shown signs of slowing but remains a critical factor in economic stability.
     
  4. Long-Term Implications: The ongoing tariff policy continues to influence inflation expectations and economic growth, highlighting the need for strategic planning and adaptation.


For more insights, watch United's latest Quarterly Video. Questions? Contact an advisor at United Asset Strategies.

www.unitedasset.com
516.222.0021

 

Commentary as of Wednesday, July 30th 2025. Please keep in mind this material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is intended for educational purposes only.