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United Asset Strategies Quarterly Letter: 1Q2025
In January, we noted the potential for higher volatility due to lofty valuations
and policy uncertainty. As such, this year’s increase in volatility and lower
stock market are not overly surprising. Exhibit 1 shows 1st quarter pressure
was concentrated in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which were weighed down
by high-multiple Big Tech stocks on AI -related competitive concerns, with
the average stock (S&P equal-weight), and old-economy, value-oriented
stocks (Dow Jones) holding their value relatively well. That pressure has
since broadened so far into the 2nd quarter, however, reacting to the global
implications of a larger-than-expected tariff policy. Representing a welcome
change vs. 2022, however, fixed income has again provided ballast to
balanced accounts in what has been a challenging equity year, with positive
bond returns (Bloomberg Agg.) from a flight to safety and lower rates.