Top

Blog

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower with Delta Variant an Ongoing Risk Adding to Underlying Volatility #DeltaVariant #Economy #Inflation

U.S. stock futures are lower.  Earnings optimism offset Covid concerns, driving equities higher yesterday with all three stock benchmarks rising.  Investors are confident, based on earnings results and guidance, that the recovery is sustainable but the Delta variant will be an ongoing risk and will add to the underlying volatility.  10y yields are higher at 1.29%, marking the 3rd consecutive day of gains.  Jobless claims for last week were 419k versus consensus of 350k, the 10y yield declined after the announcement and futures remain negative.  These economic reports are expected to remain choppy as the economy reopens.  The European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged and might maintain current levels until its sees inflation stabilizing at 2%.  Asian markets closed higher and European markets are trading higher after ECB announcement.

Continue reading
25 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher and May Fuel the Continuing Rallying in Equities #DeltaVariant #Schumer #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher. Futures are pointing to a higher opening and may fuel the continuing rallying in equities.  As markets take a pause and reassess record equity levels, investors could buy on dips & view this as a buying opportunity.  Concerns on the delta variant and new Covid cases are the primary fears.  Above estimate corporate earnings results provide a positive catalyst for the markets, hence upbeat about the outlook for stocks.  Today Senator Schumer is expected to set a vote for the infrastructure legislation but will not get the necessary votes and negotiations are anticipated to continue.  This morning, bitcoin is trading above $30,000.   Bond yields are higher with the 10y trading at 1.23% post hitting a low of 1.13% and is expected to remain range bound.  International markets are higher.

Continue reading
27 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher After Steep Declines Across the Various Indexes and Sectors #DowJones #COVID #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Indications are that equity markets are expected to open higher this morning after steep declines across the various indexes and sectors.  The DJIA declined 2.09%, 10th largest single-day percentage drops in the Dow Jones Inustrial Average over the past year. Selling was driven by a flight to safety trade into treasuries due mainly to higher new COVID cases.  The 10y dropped briefly to 1.17% (a five-month low), closing at 1.19%.  Brent crude is slightly higher this morning following a 6.8% decline and cryptocurrencies shared in pain as bitcoin fell below $30,000.  Earnings season is in full swing and investors remain confident that earnings will surprise on the upside.  European markets are rebounding this morning and Asian markets closed lower; both markets influenced by U.S markets. 

Continue reading
47 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower as Treasury Yields Decline, Due Principally to "Flight to Safety" #DeltaVariant #Vaccine #InternationalMarkets

U.S. stock futures are lower.  Equity markets are expected to open lower today, as treasury yields decline due principally to “flight to safety”.  The increase in Covid cases, new lockdown restrictions and the Delta variant are the primary concerns driving yields lower.  However, as of this morning, hospitalizations have not risen and the threat of new lockdowns may drive additional non-vaccinated individuals to get vaccinated.  The 10y yield has declined to 1.22%, compared to 1.29% close on Friday.  Corporate earnings season continues this week, with expectations to exceed consensus estimates and further insight into full year 2021 guidance.   Most markets are lower this morning, reflecting fears of a global slowdown.  Oil prices fell after OPEC+ agreed to raise production levels.   International markets are lower following U.S futures markets.

Continue reading
48 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher as Markets Continue to React to Powell's Statements #ChairmanPowell #StockMarket #Economy

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Markets are still reacting to Chairman Powell’s statements and Treasury Secretary Yellen expects “several more months of rapid inflation”, which is expected to subside afterwards.  Investors are analyzing higher Inflation data and earnings results from big banks and its implications on valuations.  This morning, total retail sales increased 0.6% in June compared to -0.3% estimate, reflecting higher consumer spending and improved consumer confidence.  Most economist expected higher consumer spending during the summer months.  Both equity futures and bonds yields are flat after the release.   European markets are mixed and Asian markets closed higher.  Chinese economic growth is expected to slow on a quarterly basis but is expected to achieve above consensus annual growth.  European markets are expected to be choppy as the summer vacation season is in full gear.  Corporate spreads continue to decline as the search for yields into risky assets pressure spreads.

 

Continue reading
46 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower Following the Fed Chairman's Dovish Remarks #Inflation #ChairmanPowell #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are lower.  Following the Fed Chairman’s mostly dovish remarks, markets are expected to open lower.  Powell stated rate increases are “still ways off” and that the employment growth progress is positive but is cautiously optimistic.  Regarding inflation, the Chairman estimates “transitory” inflation and the supply issues and downtrend pricing pressure will dimmish over time.  Additionally, the Fed “will not hesitate” to utilize its monetary tools to tame higher inflation.  The 10y yield is at 1.32%, versus its closing yield of 1.42% (Tuesday). Today, Chairman Powell will deliver testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.   Last week’s jobless claims were 360,000 versus 350,000 estimates. China’s economy grew by 7.9% in 2Q’21 in line with consensus but below the previous quarter’s 18.3% rate.  European markets are lower and Asian markets closed mixed. 

Continue reading
36 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures are Higher Following Yesterday's Increase in Rates & Pullback in Equity Prices #Powell #OilPrices #MonetaryPolicy

U.S. stock futures are higher.  PPI increased 0.9% in June and core increased 5.5% annually & total PPI headline number increased 7.3%, versus 6.7% expected.  The 10y & 30y treasury rates are flat and futures remain positive post report.  This is following yesterday’s increase in rates and pull back in equity prices. Chairman Powell is scheduled to present before the House Financial Services Committee today, which is the bank’s twice-yearly report on monetary policy at noon.  Bank earnings continue to shine as the reported financials exceed consensus estimates.  Daily new Covid infections rates have increased across mainly unvaccinated areas in the U.S  leading to higher hospitalizations.  This is based on a 14-day moving average and are relatively lower compared to early June.  Senate Democrats reached a $3.5 trillion spending over the coming decade budget deal that includes higher spending on health care & family service programs.  Global oil prices declined after OPEC+ reached an agreement with UAE over production quotas.   European markets are mixed and Asian markets closed lower

Continue reading
38 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower #CPI #SP500 #BankEarnings

U.S. stock futures are lower. Core CPI increased by 4.5% versus 4% estimate and total CPI increased 5.4% compared to 5% estimate for June.   On a monthly basis headlines and core prices both rose 0.9% versus 0.5% consensus.  10y treasury yields are slightly lower and the S&P futures are lower post announcement.  Large bank earnings, which includes JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs,  top estimates and is the start of the earnings season.  Volatility in energy markets continue as OPEC+ is deadlock over production levels.  European markets are lower as investors monitor delta variant and Asian markets are higher. 

 

Continue reading
40 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower as Investors Analyze Reported Earnings #DeltaVariant #StockFutures #Investors

U.S. stock futures are lower. Earnings season starts this week with the market at record levels.  Investors will be analyzing the reported earnings and guidance and if these factors justify current high valuations.  Earnings are anticipated to grow in an expansionary economic period; also, companies have weathered the worst of the current lockdowns.  Generally, investor sentiment is positive and bullish but concerned about the Delta variant.  The 10y is currently trading at 1.34% compared to 1.29% from Thursday’s close.  Asian markets closed higher after the People’s Bank of China reduced its reserve requirements for banks, allowing banks to lend more to businesses.  European markets are trading mostly higher.

Continue reading
35 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher as Markets are Expected to Slowly Bounce Back from Yesterday's Selloff #Biden #Pfizer #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are higher.   Markets are expected to slowly bounce back from yesterday’s selloff.  Markets did close lower but recovered from the day’s lows.  Persistent issues are the delta variant, labor shortages, and potential slowing economy. 10y yields increased to 1.34% after falling Thursday to 1.25% and currently at 1.33%.   President Biden is expected to sign an executive order focused on anticompetitive practices in Big Tech and Pfizer is developing a Covid booster to target the delta variant.  On the oil front, Brent crude is higher this morning  and OPEC+ is still deadlocked on production quotas. European markets are higher and yesterday the European Central Bank presented a new policy that will likely keep its easy-money policies in place for longer.  Asian markets closed lower following the S&P.  Corporate spreads are slightly wider.

Continue reading
57 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower While Investors Think a Pullback is Healthy After Market Highs #Bitcoin #Olympics #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are lower.  All three major index futures are lower this morning and treasury yields also continue to decline.  This is after the S&P & Nasdaq hit record highs yesterday and some investors think a pullback is essentially healthy for the market post reaching highs.  Concerns about the ultimate pace of recovery and the sustainability of higher growth once the fiscal stimulus programs fade still lingers.  The 10y is trading at 1.29% and fell below 1.26% earlier this morning.  Jobless claims from last week were 373k compared to consensus of 353k. Treasury yields are slightly lower after the announcement.  Bitcoin prices are under $33k and most cryptocurrencies are lower.  European markets are lower and government bonds are rallying alongside Treasuries.  Asian markets closed lower amid heightened regulatory fears.   Japan declared a state of emergency ahead the Olympics.

Continue reading
53 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher Ahead of Fed Reserve's Meeting Minutes #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are higher.    The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes will be released this afternoon and should provide insight into the current “hawkish pivot” theme.  However, the 10y and 30y yields have noticeable declined yesterday, countering this theme and that the Fed may remain accommodative for a longer period.  Specifically, the labor market growth is not overtly positive relative to estimates and may slow down once the initial reopening euphoria has declined.  Uncertainty about supply production issues pressured oil companies’ equity prices and OPEC+ have indefinitely postponed talks on production talks.   Mortgage demand declined for the second straight week as low inventory and high home prices continued to weigh on the hot housing market.  The pan continental Stoxx Europe 600 climbed to an all-time high with most European markets trading higher.  Asian markets closed mainly lower.

Continue reading
45 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower After Major Indexes Had a Record Week #CorporateEarnings #Employment #OilPrices

U.S. stock futures are lower.   Markets are expected to take a breather today after most major indexes had a record week.  The start of corporate earnings season may provide an additional catalyst for valuations and trading might remain range bound as earnings guidance is scrutinized.  Treasury bond yields are relatively flat with the 10y trading at 1.42%.  Friday’s employment report, while exceeded estimates, was not a totally blow out report; thereby possibly granting the Fed more time before  raising rates. WTI and Brent prices are higher this morning as OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on production as demand is increasing. This past weekend, Americans paid a national average of $3 a gallon, the highest prices in roughly 7 years. Gold prices are higher- back above $1,800 per ounce. International markets are mixed driven by higher oil prices.

Continue reading
48 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher While Recovery Drives Economic Growth #SP500 #Nasdaq #Inflation

U.S. stock futures are higher.    For the 2Q’21, the S&P 500 was up 14.4%, DJIA up 12.73% and Nasdaq at 12.54%.  The recovery is driving economic growth and equity prices, inflation concerns have been tamed, for now.  However, if inflation issues are not temporary, then the Fed may raise interest rates earlier.  Last week’s jobless claims were 364k versus consensus of 395k, the 10y yields are 1.46% and has remained firmly below 1.50%. Tomorrow’s employment report is expected to provide a better gauge of overall economic growth. Brent futures remain above $75 as OPEC + discuss production levels and is expected to release projections today.  The average investment grade corporate bond spread was 81 bps, a 16-year low and funding costs for companies, also, remains historically low, resulting additional corporate bond issuance.  European markets are higher marking a positive start to the second half and Asian markets closed lower.

Continue reading
58 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower after S&P Closed Higher Yesterday #COVID #FiscalStimulus #SP500

U.S. stock futures are lower.   The  S&P closed higher yesterday, marking the 33rd all-time high of 2021 and as of today it is up 14.26% (YTD) and 10y treasury at 1.45%.  The combination of stable economic growth post COVID restrictions, accommodative Fed, fiscal stimulus, and lower inflation expectations have been a positive catalyst for equities.  Additionally, as of today, 10y bond yields dropped 0.113 percentage points this month.  ADP reported that jobs at U.S companies grew by 692,000 in June and exceeding estimates of 550,000.  The consensus for Friday’s employment report is 675,000.  OPEC + is meeting today to discuss changes in production with Brent at roughly $75.  European markets are lower driven by new variant cases and Asian markets closed mixed. 

Continue reading
65 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower After Hitting New Record Highs Yesterday #Facebook #FTC #EconomicRecovery

U.S. stock futures are lower.    S&P futures are choppy this morning after hitting new record highs yesterday.  Equity markets continue to have tailwinds from  reopening and  resulting confidence in a sustainable economic recovery.  Facebook closed above the $1 trillion market value after a federal court dismissed the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) antitrust complaint.  The FTC can re-file an amended complaint within 30 days.  Big banks increased their annual dividends after passing the Federal Reserve’s recent stress test results.  Yields on the 10y remain below 1.50% and investors are waiting Friday’s employment report before the long July 4th weekend.  Asian markets closed lower and European markets are trading higher. 

Continue reading
59 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher Going Into the Last Week of the Second Quarter #SP500 #DowJones #Nasdaq #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Going into the last week of the 2Q’21, the S&P starting up almost 14%, Dow up at 12.5%, and Nasdaq up at 11.4%.  Investors will be focused on Friday’s employment report and 10y yields are above 1.50% and is expected to remain range bound until then.  Economic reopening is accelerating as more adults are vaccinated and overall infection rates are lower.  This remains a positive catalyst for equity markets and confidence on the Fed’s ability to tame inflation is fairly tenable, as inflation expectations decline.  Bitcoin prices increased 4% this morning with prices above $34k.  Corporate spreads continue to remain narrow versus treasury yields and overall yields have declined noticeably.  International markets are trading mixed this morning. 

 

Continue reading
71 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher After Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal #Nasdaq #SP500 #Taxes

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Equity markets closed at record levels yesterday (S&P / Nasdaq)  driven by a bipartisan infrastructure deal.   A group of 10 centrist senators agreed to about $1 trillion plan but questions regarding the eventual payment and/or the framework in tax increases are still uncertain.  The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.4%, in line with estimates, but is the fastest increase since the 1990s.  The core PCE is one of the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators.  Yields on the 10y and 30y are both flat after the announcement.   Overall 10y rates are remaining below 1.50%.  Asian markets are higher driven mainly reopening and European markets are mixed. 

Continue reading
65 Hits

U.S. Stocks Are Holding Gains Despite Weaker Data #Biden #Infrastructure #JoblessClaims

U.S. stocks are holding gains despite weaker data.  New orders for durable goods rose 2.3% in May, weaker than the expected 2.8% rise.  Core capital goods also missed expectations, falling 0.1% against expectations for a 0.5% rise.  Weekly jobless claims were roughly unchanged last week at 411,000, however, claims were higher than estimates of 380,000 and the prior week was revised slightly higher to 418,000.  On the political front, President Biden will meet with a bipartisan group of 21 senators today to review a $953 bln infrastructure plan proposal which would include $559 bln in new spending.  Overseas, European stocks are trading higher with financial stocks leading the advance.  Asian stocks edged higher with South Korean stocks leading the region.

Continue reading
68 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher with Overall Positive Sentiment #Bitcoin #ChairmanPowell #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Equity markets are expected to open higher with overall positive sentiment as yields remain (10y) remain below 1.50%.  Bitcoin staged a comeback toward the end of the day, closing above $33,000.  Chairman Powell told the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis that 70’s style inflation is mostly improbable.  This dovish tone on interest rates may change if reported CPI/PPI results trend higher.  WTI futures are at $73.29 this morning, a 2 ½ year high and the WTI to Brent discount  has declined to roughly $1.30 a barrel, reflecting the tightest spread since November 2016.  European markets pulled back and Asian markets are fairly mixed.  Corporate spreads remain tighter. 

Continue reading
73 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Higher With The S&P Within 1% Of Its Record High #SP500 #Bitcoin #Google

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Equity markets are starting off after the S&P gaining 1.4% and within 1% of its record high.  Chairman Powell will present before a House Panel in the afternoon and is expected to restate that the economy is growing but still has some headwinds from the Covid pandemic with inflation increasing but is anticipated to be transitory.  10y yields have stayed below 1.50% and short-term rates have increased while long term rates stay lower, resulting in a flattening yield curve.   The European Commission on Tuesday opened a new antitrust investigation into Alphabet’s Google, looking into whether the tech giant favors its own online display ad technology.  Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are lower this morning following China’s crackdown.  European markets are mainly higher driven by positive U.S outlook on inflation expectations and Asian markets closed higher. 

Continue reading
70 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher After Major Indexes Trended Down Last Week #Inflation #OilPrices #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher.   Last week the major indexes trended down after the Fed’s more aggressive pivot to higher interest rates earlier than expected.  While short term rates did increase, longer term rates declined.  This morning the 30y yield declined below 2% and currently is at 2.03%.  The flattening curve exemplifies the markets’ confidence that the Fed can manage inflation in the long term, with long term rates declining on lower inflation expectations.  Potentially hiking short term rates  to tame inflation within the economy.  This morning Bank of America Corp said that oil may hit $100 a barrel next year driven by strong consumption and limited supply;  global oil prices are up.  Cryptocurrency prices declined with China cracking down on bitcoin mining and bitcoin dropped 7% on Monday morning, trading under $33,000 for the first time in two weeks.  European markets are higher and Asian markets closed lower.

Continue reading
65 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower With This Morning's Fed Announcement #Bloomberg #GlobalMarkets #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are lower.  Following the Fed’s more hawkish stance and combined with this mornings’ announcement that certain Fed governors are openly discussing tapering, specifically limiting the monthly purchase of mortgage backed securities, equity markets are expected to open lower.   This was announced by Bloomberg TV this morning. Yields on the 10y & 30y are higher this morning post declining notably in yesterday’s trading.  Also, today is so-called quadruple witching with four types of financial contracts expiring.  Commodity prices remain volatile after Chinese government agency announced plans to release some of its reserves of key metals. Global markets are lower and corporate spreads remain narrow.  

Continue reading
66 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower After the Fed's More Hawkish Stance #JoblessClaims #Fed #Investing

U.S. stock futures are lower.   Equity markets are expected to edge lower this morning post the Fed’s more hawkish stance.  After leaving rates unchanged and no changes to its’ monthly bond-buying quantitative easing program, the Fed is anticipated to increase benchmark rates by the end of 2023, sooner than anticipated in March.  As a result, 10y yields increased to 1.58% from 1.49% and was its’ biggest one-day advance in three months.  Investors may continue to recalibrate their portfolios due to this hawkish position resulting in possibly additional volatility.   Jobless claims for last week were 412k versus consensus of 360k. European markets are lower and Asian markets closed lower driven mainly by the Fed’s announcement.

 
Continue reading
81 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher as Markets Await Tomorrow's FOMC Announcement #Biden #Putin #NATO #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Markets are waiting for the FOMC interest rate policy announcement tomorrow  and the consensus is for the Fed is to reiterate its’ accommodative policy but also mention committee’s opinion on higher inflation expectations.  10y treasuries continue to remain below 1.50% and could not break past this key level in yesterday’s trading.  PPI Final demand was 6.6% compared to estimate of 6.5% & retail sales (month over month) declined by -1.3% relative to consensus of -0.5% and the previous months announcements were influenced by stimulus checks.  The PPI increase was the largest 12-month increase on record.  Following the announcements, the 10y & 30y yields are basically flat. On the political front, President Biden is scheduled to meet President Putin on Wednesday in Geneva after the NATO and G-7 meetings. Bitcoin traded above $40,000 after Tudor Jones endorsement on the cryptocurrency.  The Stoxx Europe 600 hit a record high and other European/Asian markets are higher.

Continue reading
83 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures are Higher Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Meeting #FOMC #Inflation #SPX

U.S. stock futures are higher.  The three primary U.S indexes, S&P, Nasdaq, & Dow, closed higher last week.  The FOMC meets on Tuesday and official policy announcement on Wednesday afternoon with attention intently focused on potential shifts in expectations for inflation and interest rates.  The recovery is sustainable and the continuing economic expansion is favorable for equites, but investors are concerned with higher inflation.  The 10y yield is 1.45% this morning and has remained firmly below 1.50% over the last week.  Corporate spreads are still edging tighter on both the IG & HY sectors, and this reflects favorable corporate fundamental.
 
Continue reading
79 Hits

U.S. Stocks Opened Higher After Record Close #SPX #CPI #G7

U.S. stock futures opened higher.  Markets hit a record high yesterday and futures continue to edge higher.  Higher than estimated CPI did not severely impact bond yields, as the 10y levels dip to 1.43% and currently trading at 1.45%.  Treasury analyst suggested a short covering is happening as yields decline in the face of higher inflation.   Additionally, the cheaper dollar value versus other currencies may incentivize foreign investments in treasuries.  Today the University of Michigan’s preliminary index of consumer sentiment for May is released at 10 a.m ET.  President Biden and G-7 leaders will endorse a global minimum corporate tax of least 15% on Friday, final approval is still uncertain.  European markets are higher following in line with U.S markets and Asian markets closed mixed.
Continue reading
79 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures are Higher After CPI Report #CPI #Jobless #ECB

U.S. stock futures are higher. This morning, May CPI was reported at 5% (y/y) versus consensus of 4.7% and the fastest increase since mid-2008. The headline number, which represents a basket including food, energy, groceries, housing cost and other items across a wider spectrum, was 5.3% in August 2008. The 10y and 30y yields are higher, after hitting weekly lows yesterday. Additionally, jobless claims totaled 376K from last week and compared to estimate of 369k, initial filings have been moving steadily lower. European stocks are lower, with Christine Lagarde speaking this morning and made no significant changes to monetary policy. Asian markets closed mixed and corporate spreads remain narrow and mostly within a limited trading band. 

Continue reading
92 Hits

U.S. Stock Markets Are Mixed with Tech-Heavy Nasdaq Trading higher #USICA #Nasdaq #Biden

U.S. stock markets are mixed with the technology-heavy Nasdaq trading higher.  Helping to boost technology stocks this morning is news that the Senate passed the US Innovations and Competition Act (USICA) on Tuesday.  The USICA will help America remain competitive with China on technological innovation.  The $250 bln bill will provide funding for domestic semiconductor R&D, an increase in funding for the National Science Foundation as well as other R&D spending in applied sciences.  The bill will move to the House in coming weeks prior to reaching President Biden’s desk.  Stocks are likely to have a muted session today as investors await May’s CPI reading due out tomorrow.  On the data front, mortgage applications fell 3.1% last week as refinancing slowed despite a drop in the average 30-yr fixed rate mortgage to 3.15%.  European stocks closed lower with materials stocks leading the decline.  Asian stocks closed mostly lower after China’s May producer prices came in slightly hotter than expected.

Continue reading
79 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher After Yesterday's Pullback #Redbook #CPI #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher. Stock futures continue to remain range bound after a pullback yesterday.  This morning Redbook is the only economic release and CPI report is  on Thursday.  Overall themes have not changed, steady growth with manageable inflation.  The 10y yield is at 1.52%, continuing to decline from last week and reflecting no overt concerns about a sharp increase in inflation.  International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $71.17 a barrel on Tuesday, up around 2.7%, while WTI futures stood at $68.65, for a gain of more than 3% and the contract’s highest level in more than two years. Oil prices have climbed more than 30% this year.   Bitcoin fell more than 7% to under $33,000 this morning. The Stoxx European 600 index is close to hitting fresh all-time high and Asian stocks closed lower.

Continue reading
73 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher With Indications The Economy Is In A Sustainable Recovery Mode #DowJones #SP500 #NASDAQ #Economy

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Markets are expected to open flat this morning.  Friday’s employment report, while below consensus, was still interpreted as a solid indication that the economy is in a sustainable recovery mode. The three primary benchmarks, Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, closed higher in the first week of June trading.  The Group of Seven have backed a U.S proposal that sets the minimum global corporate at 15% and possibly end the race-to-the-bottom in corporate taxation rates. Talks of higher inflation expectations have declined and both the 10y & 30y are lower this morning.  The 10y has remained below 1.60%, trading at 1.57% this morning and the 10y and 30y auctions are scheduled for this week.  International markets are mainly higher.

Continue reading
86 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher as Economy Grows Steadily #Stimulus #Economy #Vaccine

U.S. stock futures are higher.    U.S added 559k jobs in May versus an 671K estimate and unemployment rate is 5.8%.  Employment in April 2021 was lower by 8 million jobs compared with March 2020 and heading into May, the U.S. economy had recovered about 14.3 million of the 22 million jobs lost in the early days of the pandemic.  Futures remain higher and the 10y & 30y treasury rates remain flat.  This report is but one economic release and while it is below estimates, the economy is steadily growing and the narrative of vaccinations, reopening and federal stimulus programs and accommodative monetary policies are predicted to support this growth story.   Global oil prices continue to increase as international demand is firmer and new virus cases are declining. Moreover, oil analysts expect additional supply from Iran will not adversely impact current levels. 

Continue reading
95 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower After Closing Slightly Up Yesterday #BeigeBook #OilPrices #JoblessClaims

U.S. stock futures are lower.    Markets are expected to edge lower this morning post closing slightly up yesterday.  Jobless claims came in at 385K from last week, compared to 400K consensus. Potentially indicating a better than estimated employment report tomorrow; no major moves in the 10y and 30y yields & equity futures are still lower.  Most investors are intently focused on Friday’s employment report.  The Beige Book survey of economic activity across 12 districts reflected higher economic growth at a “moderate pace” from early April to May but also stated inflation pressures are coming from wages and input costs.  Oil prices remain steady in morning trading and international markets are lower.

Continue reading
78 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher After a Flat Day Yesterday #OilPrices #Economy #EmploymentReport

U.S. stock futures are higher.   After a mainly flat day yesterday for stocks, futures are pointing to a higher equity opening.  Global oil prices continue to rise with WTI trading above $68 and up roughly 40% YTD.  OPEC+ anticipates stable demand as the global economy reopens.  Higher oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and may curtail positive equity sentiment.  10y & 30y yields are lower this morning.  European markets are inching higher and Asian stocks are mixed.  Investors may be waiting for the U.S employment report on Friday to recalibrate their positions.  Corporate bond spreads remain tight, and these conditions are favorable for the new issuance investment grade bonds market, with attractive yields and strong demand for fixed income.

Continue reading
82 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher With Rising Confidence in the Economic Recovery #Vaccine #FederalStimulus #SP500

U.S. stock futures are higher.   Markets are expected to open higher with rising confidence in the economic recovery.  Vaccinations, federal stimulus, and re-openings are the principal catalysts for economic growth and provides positive sentiment for equity markets.  Investor convictions are also fueling record high stock levels, with the S&P 500 closing at its 3rd highest level.  Treasury yields are remaining range bound and this Friday is the all-important employment report.  Today, OPEC+ members will meet to discuss oil production and expect that Iranian supply will not drastically influence daily output levels.  Brent hit $70.81 this morning as global economic growth is expanding and demand is more stable.  European markets rose to a record high this morning – the pan European Stoxx 600 climbed 1.1% and Asian markets closed higher.  Corporate spreads are narrower.  The average high-grade spread is at a 14-year low, funding costs are very appealing to potential issuers.

Continue reading
107 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures are Higher Heading into Memorial Day Weekend #Biden #Economy #MemorialDay

U.S. stock futures are higher.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index for April rose 3.1% (year over year) versus expectations of 2.9%.  Yields on the 10y and 30y are higher but with the limited trading day due to the Memorial Day weekend, the overall reaction may be muted.  Futures are also  up after the report.  The President’s $6 trillion budget is estimated to bolster economic growth and help support equities connected to economic recovery.  European markets hit record highs on Friday as global stocks look to positive U.S jobless claims report yesterday.  Brent crude inched close to $70 this morning reflecting growing global oil demand; however, new supply from Iran continues to be a concern for oil investors.  International markets are trading higher and corporate spreads remain tight relative to treasuries.

Continue reading
95 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher with Economic Reports Reflecting a Growing Economy #GDP #MemorialDay #EconomicReports

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Jobless claims for last week were 406k versus consensus of 450k, mainly positive. The GDP second estimate remained steady, and durable goods order was lower.  Overall, the economic reports reflected a stable but growing economy, which is expected to accelerate as the domestic and international economy starts to reopen.  Post economic reports, futures are still trading slightly higher going into a longer Memorial Day weekend tomorrow.  The 10y & 30y yields are ticking higher  and remaining within the range from last week. Concerns about runaway inflation have been somewhat declining as the confidence in the Fed is tenable and the growing recovery.  European markets are higher and Asian markets closed higher.

Continue reading
136 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Higher as Bond Yields Continue to Decline #COVID #GOP #Inflation

U.S. stock futures are higher. Equities are expected to edge up this morning as bond yields continue to decline. Positive statements from various international central bankers are supportive of lower yields. Specifically, they anticipate that current higher inflation is mainly transitory and overall prices increases will be manageable and should decline as the initial growth spurt from COVID reopening declines.  The 10y yield is at 1.55% morning compared to yesterday’s opening level of 1.60%.   GOP senators are expected to send the President a infrastructure counteroffer, which could cost $1 trillion without increasing taxes.  Additionally, major bank CEOs are set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday.  They will face questions regarding racial wealth inequalities and how their institutions dealt with COVID.  International markets are trading mixed.

Continue reading
101 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Higher with Declining Treasury Yields Pointing to Higher Opening for Equity Markets #Economy #Inflation #Employment

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Declining treasury yields are pointing to a higher opening for the equity markets.  10y treasury yields dip below 1.60% to 1.58%.  Investors are comfortable with the Fed’s stance on its accommodative policy of maintaining lower rates until a tenable recovery is attainable and reiterated that the reported inflation data is transitory and manageable.  Investors are wishing for a “Goldilocks” situation – a solid and sustainable economic growth with a manageable inflation and this situation is highly constructive for both equity and credit investors.  The litmus test will be the economic reports as economic growth accelerates and resulting employment growth and CPI figures.  This morning international markets are mainly higher, and spreads are slightly higher relative to last week.

 

Continue reading
120 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher with Premarket Indexes Pointing in Positive Territory #DowJones #SP500 #Bitcoin #CDC

U.S. stock futures are higher.   Markets are expected to open higher today, with all premarket indexes pointing into positive territory.  Both the Dow Jones & S&P dropped approximately 0.5% last week and this week is the last full trading week in May before the Memorial Day weekend.  Treasury yields start the week lower compared to the same time last week as investors become rather comfortable with range bound yields, while balancing general inflation expectations.  On the COVID front, more positive news: according to the CDC more that 49% of the U.S population have received at least one shot and new cases have declined.   Bitcoin prices increased to $38,000 this morning from declining to $32,000 on Sunday, continuing its volatility from last week.  Corporate spreads are still tight.  European markets are lower and Asian markets closed mixed.

Continue reading
111 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher after Breaking From Three Days of Declining Levels #Economy #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Markets are pointing to a higher opening, one day after edging higher and breaking from three days of declining levels.  Investors are buying on pullbacks and possibly positioning their portfolios as economic growth is expected to accelerate.   Treasury yields, 10y & 30y, are lower this morning and preliminary surveys of purchasing managers are to be released this morning and is anticipated to show an expanding economy.  After large declines during the beginning of the week, cryptocurrency as measured by Bitcoin, is trading higher.  Positive survey of purchasing managers across Europe is aiding local markets higher and most Asian markets closed mainly up.

Continue reading
147 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower with Concern About Changes in Monetary Policy #SP500 #Employment #Investors

U.S. stock futures are lower.  Futures are pointing to a lower opening for equities.  While the S&P closed lower yesterday, prices did bounce back after declining precipitously during the day.  Stock investors are concerned about changes in monetary policy, specifically after the Fed’s minutes showed that policy makers may discuss plans on a potential tapering.  Jobless claims totaled 444K versus 452K consensus estimate from last week, reflecting improving employment situation and both the 10y and 30y yields declined post report.  European markets are trading higher and Asian markets closed mixed with China edged lower and Japan closed higher.

Continue reading
114 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher As Companies Report Better Than Expected Earnings #JobGrowth #Vaccine #StockFutures

U.S. stock futures are higher.  Markets are expected to open higher this morning as companies continue to report better than expected earnings.  The sentiment remains constructive as restrictions across the country are easing and vaccinations are increasing.  These should be the primary catalyst for stronger economic growth and invariably faster job growth.  The 10y & 30y yields are lower this morning.  Brent crude rose to $69 after climbing above $70 a barrel, as global demand is rising.  International markets are higher and spreads remain tighter. 

Continue reading
126 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower Following Last Week's Volatility #SP500 #StockFutures #Investors

U.S. stock futures are lower.   Post last week’s volatile week, with the S&P ending the week down 1.4%, equities are expected to open lower.  The earnings season is coming to an end and investors are intently focused on faster inflation expectations.  Roughly 90% of the S&P companies have released earnings and 86% of these companies have exceeded its estimates, according to FactSet.  The Fed minutes from the last meeting will be released on Wednesday and may give some insight into official’s thinking on inflation and interest rates. This morning both the 10y & 30y yields are higher.  Chinese stocks are trading higher after its industrial output increased 9.8% beating forecast but its retail sales rose by a lower than expected 17.7%.  Overall, it is a positive for China and Asian markets closed mixed.  European markets are trading lower and corporate spreads remain tighter. 

Continue reading
107 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher After a Volatile Week #FederalReserve #CDC #Economy

U.S. stock futures are Higher.  After a volatile week, equity markets are expected to open higher.  Economic reports detailing higher inflation both on the consumer and producer levels, combined with a surge in commodity prices, have frightened equity investors.  Equity valuations are recalibrated with changes in treasury yields.   Federal Reserves officials think these inflationary signals are transitory and will not increase interest rates.  However, with equity prices hitting record highs,  the markets are highly sensitive to interest rates.   The CDC announced that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear mask or stay 6 feet away.  U.S. retail sales unchanged in April, vs 1.0% increase expected and rates are lower after the announcement.

Continue reading
121 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher as the Market Digests Economic Reports #JoblessClaims #LaborDepartment #SP500

U.S. stock futures are Higher.  Post yesterday’s sell off, the market will again digest economic reports.  Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% in April versus consensus of 0.3% and year over year was 6.2% versus 5.9% estimate.  Additionally, jobless claims were 473k compared to 475K market estimates.  Bond yields are little lower post quickly rising after Wednesday’s higher than expected CPI report.  The Labor Department reported that the prices American consumers pay for goods and services accelerated at their fastest pace since 2008 last month with the Consumer Price Index spiking 4.2% from a year ago. Higher rates pressured equities, specifically tech companies, with major indexes closing lower.  Both the Dow & S&P futures are higher this morning after the economic releases.  European and Asian markets are both lower this morning.

Continue reading
99 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower with Higher Than Expected CPI Report #SP500 #NASDAQ #DOW #ColonialPipeline

U.S. stock futures are lower.  Equity futures are lower due to higher-than-expected CPI report.  CPI rose 4.2% in April, faster than expected and the consensus was for 3.6%. The monthly gain was 0.8%, against the expected 0.2%.  Higher data was mainly related to a lower base from last year.  Principally, inflation was low at this same time in 2020 and the year over year comparison might be distorted.  However, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq-100 futures declined further post report and 10y and 30y yields are higher.  Colonial Pipeline is expected to restore a major portion of operations by the end of the week; however, gasoline prices could rise further if  pipelines are not fully reinstated. European markets are higher and Asian closed lower.  Spreads remain tight and this week Amazon issued roughly $15 billion corporate bonds across the benchmark maturity spectrum, taking full advantage of lower yields + spreads. The proceeds are mainly for general corporate purposes.

Continue reading
131 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Lower with Fears of Higher Inflation & Extended Valuations #NASDAQ #Inflation #ColonialPipeline

U.S. stock futures are lower. Fears of higher inflation and extended valuations are pressuring equity markets.  This morning, Nasdaq-100 futures are down roughly 1.9% following yesterday’s sell off.  Higher commodity prices are expected to strengthen inflationary pressures, resulting in Fed actions earlier but the Fed is expected to stomach some inflation and may not immediately raise interest rates.  10y and 30y yields are higher this morning. Colonial Pipeline announced it hopes to restore operations by the end of this week and gasoline prices at the pump are expected to remain higher into the coming weeks.   The FDA has approved the Pfizer – BioNTech request to vaccinate kids ages 12 to 15 on an emergency basis.  European markets are trading lower and Asian markets closed lower also, as U.S equities sold-off.

Continue reading
102 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Higher with Combination of Re-Opening, Vaccinations & Federal Stimulus Plans #Economy #FederalStimulus #EquityMarkets

U.S. stock futures are higher.   Equity markets are expected to be in a pause position as it scrutinizes the employment report from Friday and potential disruptions in natural gas and oil markets.  The jobs report was noticeably weaker relative to market consensus, but policy makers will not depend on one data point to measure  overall economic recovery.  Additionally, the combination of re-opening, vaccinations, accommodative monetary program, and federal stimulus plans are anticipated to accelerate economic growth.  10y & 30y yields are essentially unchanged.  Gasoline futures rose to 1.5% after a cyberattack on Colonial Pipeline and as of this morning, some of its smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are once again online but the main lines are still offline.    European markets are mixed and Asian markets closed slightly lower. 

Continue reading
104 Hits

U.S. Stock Futures Are Higher with Expected Increase in Job Growth #Payroll #NASDAQ #COVIDVaccine

U.S. stock futures are higher.   This morning the U.S. added just 266,000 jobs in April, and March payrolls revised lower versus lofty expectations of 1 million new jobs.  Treasury yields naturally are lower both the 10y and 30y.  The Nasdaq futures are higher driven by lower treasury yields.   Market consensus is that businesses are hiring but are struggling to fill openings.  However, as vaccinations increase and between comprehensive fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary programs, job growth is expected to increase.   On the commodities front, copper prices exceeded its 2011 highs, fueled by bets on global economic growth.  European stocks are higher and Asian markets closed mixed.

Continue reading
107 Hits

© 2021 United Asset Strategies, Inc  377 Oak Street, Suite 403  Garden City, NY 11530 | P. 516-222-0021 | F. 516-222-0163 | info@unitedasset.com| Privacy Policy | ADV | CRS